2016年6月1日水曜日

re-re-forecast GDP

Based upon new update GDPnow forecast at May 28, do re-re-forecast GDP for next 10 months. 2nd qtr. New GDP annual growth rate is 2.8%.

> predict(VAR(v_XCPG_1992_2016,lag.max = 6))$fcst$GDP
          fcst    lower    upper        CI
 [1,] 16650.59 16620.69 16680.49  29.90123
 [2,] 16678.36 16613.26 16743.45  65.09441
 [3,] 16701.88 16596.66 16807.10 105.22027
 [4,] 16726.01 16586.58 16865.44 139.42727
 [5,] 16746.25 16575.42 16917.08 170.83343
 [6,] 16764.87 16565.62 16964.12 199.25079
 [7,] 16782.19 16554.59 17009.78 227.59567
 [8,] 16799.61 16544.35 17054.86 255.25926
 [9,] 16816.25 16533.71 17098.78 282.53532
[10,] 16832.42 16523.43 17141.40 308.98703

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