2016年10月24日月曜日

Tracking US GDP.


This is a memo to track US GDP forecast and actuals.


> last(GDPC96,n=12)
             GDPC96
2013-10-01 15793.93
2014-01-01 15747.05
2014-04-01 15900.78
2014-07-01 16094.45
2014-10-01 16186.74
2015-01-01 16268.98
2015-04-01 16374.18
2015-07-01 16454.88
2015-10-01 16490.68
2016-01-01 16524.99
2016-04-01 16570.17

GDPnow predicts 2.0% annual growth for 3rdquater. Then 3Q GDP is as below.

> 16570.17 * 1.005
[1] 16653.02

When Q3 GDP data is released, Q2 is also revised upward. Q3 growth was 2.9%.

> last(GDPC96,n=4)
             GDPC96

2015-10-01 16490.68
2016-01-01 16524.99
2016-04-01 16583.15
2016-07-01 16702.12

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