2016年5月28日土曜日

GDP forecast by newly updated data.

2016 1st Quarter GDP was revised upward. The growth rate was updated from 0.5% to 0.8%.
The new GDP forecast are as below. The previous one is available at May 23rd entry. #10 months is up 6.1 trillion #8 is also up 6.7. It will also give S&P 500 from another 30 to 40 pts at the end of this year.



> predict(VAR(v_XCPG_1992_2016,lag=6))$fcst$GDP
          fcst    lower    upper        CI
 [1,] 16632.19 16602.29 16662.10  29.90217
 [2,] 16658.73 16593.67 16723.80  65.06516
 [3,] 16682.32 16577.21 16787.44 105.11452
 [4,] 16705.40 16566.14 16844.65 139.25646
 [5,] 16723.61 16552.99 16894.24 170.62578
 [6,] 16740.51 16541.47 16939.54 199.03576
 [7,] 16756.71 16529.33 16984.10 227.38612
 [8,] 16773.29 16518.24 17028.34 255.05082
 [9,] 16788.88 16506.56 17071.21 282.32406
[10,] 16803.83 16495.07 17112.60 308.76632

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